“What was the point of this problem?” Anne asks Nurcan, again, in a Mauricie accent.

  “Now you all see that you can give any meaning you want to an Arithmancy-borne forecast or to its parameters!” Nurcan answers her fellow Horned Serpent. “You’ll get more out of Arithmancy if you can think about the meaning and implications of what you’re calculating!”

  “To follow in the same vein, another thing that I feel is critical to just about anyone, not just to arithmancers, is that correlation doesn’t imply causation!” Elias adds.

  Confidence intervals can be one-sided or two-sided. One-sided if you want to test the outcome being greater or less than a certain value, two-sided otherwise, Nurcan is reminded of how confidence intervals are calculated, especially in the context of is called, in arithmancy, hypothesis testing. I must remember that not many wizards can think critically on even my level, but Anne feels like one of them.

  Once the Arithmancy club meeting ends, Anne comes to Nurcan with questions ready to be asked:

  “How could you quantify what you call policy positions?” Anne asks her.

  “It’s the first time I was ever questioned about that!” Nurcan starts to feel like the club meeting is getting more unpleasant. “I had a scale for each issue! Might feel a little arbitrary to some, but…”

  “Which you felt was able to capture the nuances in policy positions, and you arbitrarily set the extremes as being extremist positions. One issue, one variable! You understand it’s not all black-and-white, I appreciate it…”

  A Lumos charm is cast in her mind. Now I have a better idea why Alejandra seemingly accepted these forecasts as being Arithmancy extra credit without question, despite telling me outright that I didn’t need it: the scales I used captured the nuances of policy positions well enough for her! And for a lot of wizards, apparently.

  But then she asks one thing about Anne:

  “Anne, I think Gen is part of your family!” Nurcan confronts Anne, based on how similar Anne and Gen’s accents are.

  “Gen is my mom, and she teaches Divination. I’m the third oldest child of the family!”

  “When do you have Divination?”

  “Tomorrow night!”

  Emmanuelle returns from her first Quidditch practice as a Wampus, hearing Nurcan talk about Divination in the distance. “Me too, and I’m finishing the season as a Quidditch Keeper for Wampus!”

  “I’m Anne!”

  “I’m Emmanuelle!”

  The following night, on January 8, they are taking Divination in a room containing dream catchers, and students from all 4 houses are assembled in a room enchanted to show a clear night sky. As all students sit on cedar bark mattresses:

  “Welcome to sixth-year Divination. For the rest of the year, we have two exchange students, one from Beauxbatons, one from Karakalem. Please welcome Emmanuelle Rictus and Nurcan Topkara!” Gen introduces the two newcomers in their section. “Before we start covering capnomancy, which is about reading smoke patterns, let me tell you about attitudes held towards divination vary across cultures. Some Native American tribes hold that divination was a gift, a you-have-it-or-you-don’t kind of thing…”

  Nurcan raises her hand. “However, the Ottomans don’t actually believe divination to be a gift the way some might believe it is. They are the reason why divination doesn’t fall under the purview of the Statute of Secrecy!”

  “Oh, really, Nurcan?” Anne asks her in a derisive way. “Can you please tell us why divination is excluded from the Statute?”

  “Can anyone answer Anne’s question?”

  “They argued that, because of divination’s lack of precision, wizarding diviners had results that didn’t differ significantly from Muggle, erm, No-Maj ones!” Nurcan continues.

  “Two points to Horned Serpent!” Geneviève continues. “My predecessor was fired because he believed that, because divination was that imprecise, it was an excuse to give grades without learning nearly as much as it would imply. And it all happened because of one student! Can anyone here tell who?”

  A Micmac Pukwudgie student raises his hand. “Dorcus Twelvetrees!”

  “One point to Pukwudgie!” Gen turns to the Micmac student. “Could you please tell our two newcomers your name?”

  “Mektaq!”

  Dorcus disgraced Pukwudgie to this day. By graduation, everyone knew her, regardless of what year you were in, before this giant crisis happened, Mektaq starts thinking about what he knew about her.

  The course briefly discusses Dorcus’ misdeeds, and how that prof’s incompetence played into allowing her to take a test she didn’t even know how she could even pass it. And also how divination is the field where academic achievements matter the least, which is a widely held view internationally.

  The way they kept talking about this Dorcus, they seem to be implying that she would make Emmanuelle look like a genius, to say nothing of Alejandra or me… Nurcan sighs.

  “I didn’t plan for this lecture to turn into a History of Magic one, so let’s go back to the divination part!” Gen turns to the two exchange students in her section. “How familiar are you with crystal gazing?”

  A case of literary theft: this tale is not rightfully on Amazon; if you see it, report the violation.

  “That’s first-year material at Karakalem, madam!” Nurcan points out.

  “We see it early at Beauxbatons, too!” Emmanuelle adds.

  “So, while capnomancy bears a lot of similarities to crystal gazing for interpretation, there are key differences, namely that visions obtained that way tend to have a shorter lifespan, and that you need to burn specific materials to make a capnomancy reading. Four materials are commonly burned for this purpose: white sage, sweetgrass, cedar and incense. And capnomancy with incense has its own name, libanomancy, which is otherwise identical to capnomancy!”

  Mektaq raises his hand. “Some tribes tend to use capnomancy to cleanse a place or object of dark magic, and that use of capnomancy outside of divination is known as smudging!”

  I guess, wizards from these tribes using smudging can always hide behind capnomancy as a defense should they get caught breaching the Statute by smudging! Nurcan thinks.

  Emmanuelle has another question for Gen. “Any other tips before we get ready to make our first capnomancy readings?”

  “For capnomancy, it is recommended to do so in a dimly lit room, so the smoke patterns can be seen more clearly! And, of course, close all windows, if your room has any, while avoiding the use of flammable containers to put your burning materials in!”

  Gen then distributes abalone shells as used for capnomancy, which are enchanted to prevent catching fire, so they can put the dried white sage in it. And then use Incendio, whom the three girls believe is weak enough in its wandless form to be safely used to ignite it. Which, for them, is a practice in wandless magic and both Emmanuelle and Nurcan watch as Anne, Mektaq and the others seemingly have less trouble igniting the sage without a wand than the two newcomers.

  But when they finally manage to ignite the sage wandlessly, man is it satisfying to the duo. The two watch as the sage is brought to a slow burn inside the abalone shells.

  Nurcan sees something that she might not like through the smoke, even when the air of the room starts to get increasingly bitter, yet smells earthy, as more students get their practice readings done.

  “What do you all see in your white sage smoke?” Gen asks the students.

  Nurcan goes first. “I see a very dark future in which Louis XVI getting guillotined will carry its load of consequences, both for France but also for the rest of Europe!”

  The rest of the class gasps upon hearing about Nurcan’s prediction from something as simple as a capnomancy reading, not believing her in the slightest. Probably because none of them, except maybe for Emmanuelle or Anne, even heard about Louis XVI, much less that he’s at risk of being guillotined.

  Some of the local students struggle to resist asking Nurcan about what a guillotine is, much less what he’s at risk of getting guillotined for, or what the consequences would be.

  Already that the Flight to Varennes caused the king to lose his credibility, his guilt on at least a few counts cannot be denied after the Armoire de Fer, which was uncovered while I was at Hogwarts, Nurcan reflects on the King’s verdict, which is a foregone conclusion to her.

  What isn’t a foregone conclusion in her mind, however, is whether he’ll get guillotined. She can feel like the Girondins would either not ask for his death, or that any death sentence be subject to a referendum. Said referendum, on the other hand, would likely be denied by the Jacobins, and especially not when their leader, Robespierre, wanted Louis guillotined without a trial, and hence without due process, going into the trial.

  When Emmanuelle’s turn comes, she makes a prediction about the rest of what Quidditch career she could have.

  “I’m going to have a hard time adjusting to life as a professional Quidditch player, but more so off the pitch than on it!” Emmanuelle’s prediction comes out.

  “One point to Wampus!”

  I read about the lives of some players who make it to the pros, but don’t make it as a pro. Now, Beauxbatons has a good track record of its students enjoying pro success in Quidditch later in life, as does Durmstrang, but sometimes a lack of structure can do some players in, Emmanuelle starts thinking about how, But there are no resources for me to help learn Chinese here should I end up playing for Zhanjiang after all! And you need to consider off-pitch customs, too! All I’m aware of is that Keepers get blamed regularly should things go awry: it’s the harsh reality of Keeper life.

  When the final student’s turn arrives, while being almost out of sage to burn, Sabrina, a Thunderbird student, makes a final prediction:

  “I foresee that Thunderbird will need to write off the Quidditch Cup and focus on the Gobstone Goblet to win the House Cup!”

  “This exercise was very personal to you. Now, if you plan on doing it for other people, even for free, please keep in mind that you should ensure that your client asks a clear question before you get started doing a capnomancy reading! Any questions?” Gen asks before the students repeat the reading with a different material.

  The rest of the period is spent trying to do readings on braided sweetgrass, cedar, and finally an incense stick, trying to feel out which material best fits a given wizard as they get the hang of both capnomancy and wandless casting of fire spells.

  Nurcan feels no real difference in the readings obtained through any of the materials. However, Emmanuelle feels a strong preference for cedar, as she feels that the predictions so obtained are more positive.

  At the end of the period, on which they learned a lot on capnomancy, they leave the room, but also run into Vaidilute as Vaidilute returns to the Pukwudgie dorm:

  “What did you have?” Vaidilute asks.

  “Divination!” the two answer in unison.

  “Divination! Are you covering astrology right now?” Vaidi seems to think that astrology is the only reason why a divination class would be held this late.

  “No, we instead learned about capnomancy tonight!” Nurcan retorts.

  What a joke Divination was at Durmstrang! People took it if they wanted an easy course, and not learn much, if anything. if the Divination department keeps doing what it does now, it may no longer be compliant with international standards soon, if it isn’t already out of compliance! Vaidilute ruminates on the possible fate of the Durmstrang divination department.

  “Did you take Divination at Durmstrang? If so, did they believe it to be a gift or not?” Nurcan asks Vaidi while Emmanuelle returns to the Wampus dorms.

  “Definitely believed it was a gift without which you couldn’t do a whole lot!”

  “Karakalem believes every wizard can learn it. Did you take it?”

  “Took three years of it, learned very little outside of astrology, and yet, somehow, got near-perfect grades fifth year, while I failed the final! Which was the ICW-recognized test!”

  Did Dorcus’ EAGLE-level Divination teacher end up getting a job teaching it at Durmstrang? I don’t think Vaidi could answer me if I don’t know who taught Dorcus; all I know is that Gen replaces that person. I can’t even imagine how terrible either Vaidi’s or Dorcus’ teacher was, if different from Vaidi’s, Nurcan is left wondering, without knowing who taught divination to Dorcus at that level, much less in such a way that she could score a C on the EAGLE without understanding how she passed.

  Anne then turns to the two ladies as she goes to the Horned Serpent dorms.

  “Do you would want to take the Divination HARE at the end of the year?” Anne asks Vaidi. “I know exactly who could help you for it, provided you don’t mind asking for help across houses!”

  Vaidilute seems to hesitate a little bit. “I’ll think about it…”