It seems like the other occupants of Room 647 come relatively late to the room, so late, in fact, that they arrive in the nick of time for the back-to-school feast. As such, they didn't really talk with the other two occupants.

  Nurcan might yak about Muggle geopolitics, at least she understands the realities my family face. A lot of wizards' lives tend to revolve around one place, Christine starts to think about how she feels towards Nurcan as she makes her way to the back-to-school feast.

  This year, the students are served items such as bouchées à la reine, foie gras, and roasted poulardes, right as the wine starts being served. Like white Sainte-Stephenie Chardonnay Nurcan and Christine, on her right, take, right after the cloches are removed from the first set of dishes.

  Like her previous stay in Beauxbatons, the Turkish teenage witch feels uncomfortable after taking a little Sainte-Stephenie Chardonnay. As if she didn't drink booze in years.

  "As-tu bu ce vin avec le mauvais plat?" (Did you drink that wine with the wrong dish?) Victoria, on Nurcan's left, asks her.

  "De quoi tu... parles? J'en ai bu avec la... bouchée à la reine!" (What are you talking about? I drank it with the bouchée à la reine!) Nurcan answers, referring to the Sainte-Stephenie Chardonnay, while a little tipsy.

  If my last stay is any indication, I should be fine so long as I don't bring up the Irad-I Cedid, nor the Estates-General. However, I feel like I'm going to be in a world of hurt if someone else brings either one up to me, Nurcan starts to ruminate as she tries not to eat too much foie gras, while eating the bouchée à la reine.

  But when the second round of dishes arrives, she samples the mounjetado, a bean dish from the Couserans region, in which Beauxbatons is located. With which it seems the Sainte-Stephenie Chardonnay gets along better than it did the bouchée à la reine.

  Right as they eat the mounjetado, as well as other Couserans dishes such as taillous, Armand, the headmaster, starts his opening speech, during which the trio keeps eating.

  But what draws Nurcan's attention is the portion of the speech related to the Triwizard Tournament:

  "Cette année, le Tournoi des Trois Sorciers aura lieu à Hogwarts. Pour ceux qui ne le savez pas, le Tournoi des Trois Sorciers rassemble trois écoles pour une série de compétitions magiques. Pour chaque école, un seul étudiant sera choisi pour concourir!" (This year, the Triwizard Tournament will be held at Hogwarts. For those who don't know, the Triwizard Tournament brings together three schools for a series of magical contests. For each school, a single student will be chosen to compete!)

  But why did the Bab-I Humayun believe that, if any Ottoman was to win it, it would transcend any fame borne of policy positioning? Nurcan gets flashbacks of that meeting in Istanbul on August 9, where she accepted the Ministry's offer to send her on exchange again.

  And yet, what truly interests her is more on the logistics of how to make it to the competition:

  "Vous vous demandez comment s'y prendre pour vous qualifier. Dans un premier temps, tous les étudiants désireux d'y participer sont invités à inscrire leurs noms sur la liste des volontaires à c?té de mon bureau. Ensuite, une liste courte sera établie et, si vous faites partie de la liste courte, vous subirez un entra?nement spécial, qui inclut non seulement des sortilèges et de la défense contre les forces du mal, mais également des le?ons d'anglais!" (You might be wondering how to qualify. First, all students willing to participate are invited to write their names on the volunteers' list next to my office. Then a shortlist will be made and, if you make it to the shortlist, you'll undergo special training, which includes not only charms and defense against the dark arts, but also English lessons!)

  "Mais pourquoi des le?ons d'anglais?" (But why English lessons?) Alain, another Triwizard Tournament hopeful, asks.

  "Si vous vous qualifiez pour la liste courte, vous passerez huit mois à Hogwarts, et vous y étudierez comme si vous étiez un étudiant régulier!" (If you qualify the shortlist, you will spend eight months at Hogwarts, and you'll study there as if you were a regular student!) Armand then gives a timetable for all students wanting in on the Triwizard Tournament.

  It took me a month and a half of intensive, correspondence French lessons with Stanislas to get sufficient French proficiency to function here. Trying to get enough English proficiency to function at Hogwarts in the same timeframe is a bit much, even for me, when you compound it with the rigors of even a regular course load... Nurcan gets cold shivers down her spine upon hearing about the tightness of the schedule.

  At this point, other students ask questions about various aspects of the logistics, such as the cost of the shortlisters' textbooks once at Hogwarts. However, a lot of students sigh in relief upon hearing that they won't need to buy Hogwarts uniforms.

  "Si on se désiste, comment un rempla?ant serait désigné?" (If we withdraw, how would a substitute be designated?) Thierry, another TT hopeful, worried about its dangers.

  Armand then talks about a waitlist, from whom replacements may be chosen, but once one's name is taken off it without being chosen, a student is no longer eligible to compete.

  "Une dernière chose: une fois à Hogwarts, tous les membres de la liste courte doivent déposer leurs noms dans la Coupe de Feu, qui fera la sélection finale!" (One last thing: once at Hogwarts, all shortlistees must put their names in the Goblet of Fire, which will make the final selection!) Armand warns the student body.

  Meanwhile, Alejandra, seated at the other end of the great hall, struggles to contain her emotions. I won't let anyone use the Triwizard Tournament as a tool of Revolutionary propaganda! She starts thinking while she eyes a few students whom she suspects of being close to the Revolutionaries. But, if any of these... closet Revolutionaries make it to the short list, they're in for a most unpleasant surprise, either here or at Hogwarts, depending on whether I make it to the short list! So what if this unpleasant surprise brands me as a Royalist from that point onward! I must be prepared to face the consequences of my choice, so long as I don't get expelled!

  Unauthorized duplication: this tale has been taken without consent. Report sightings.

  But even as they get to the essentials of competing at the Triwizard Tournament, they are left wondering a few things. Such as the size of the short list, and, of course, the selection criteria for it. Which they attempt to mimic the Goblet of Fire's as closely as possible, as well as the weighting.

  I get it, the shortlist is going to be limited to 12 students, and if, despite my clear limitations on my magical power, I make it, I might still attend Hogwarts on exchange anyway, albeit not for the whole year, Nurcan makes mental notes so that she can sign up for it. While I might have at most a 3/16 chance to actually compete, I made no predictions over whether I can make it to that shortlist. Then again, I'm not deluding myself: if that 3/16 falls on me, I might feel forced to openly reveal my Revolutionary allegiance at some point after my name comes out of the Goblet, and likely after the competition starts. That might carry weighty consequences I might not be ready for...

  After the back-to-school feast ends, the sign-up sheet for the tournament is up. And it seems like a horde of students foolishly attempt to sign up for what might be a disaster waiting to happen, and a potentially lethal one.

  When Nurcan's turn arrives, she notices that there are possibly dozens, maybe even over a hundred names to cull the 12 who will make it to Hogwarts, departing on October 28 and arriving on October 30. So while she doesn't recognize most of the names, there is one name that she readily recognizes. Alejandra.

  But then, Nurcan starts to wonder whether she can actually make it to the top 12. By doing so, she feels like diving deep inside herself, especially since she can feel the consequences of a botched participation:

  They said the Goblet of Fire's criteria were magical ability, courage, intelligence and resourcefulness. The one thing I don't question out of these items is my intelligence, but my magical power being unremarkable at best might be held against me. I never really made much of a deal of my courage or resourcefulness but the main moment in my life I displayed any of either was during my previous exchange, during this whole attempt to Geminio a cahier to then send to the Bab-I Humayun. Then again, as much as I wouldn't think of a failure to compete at the Triwizard Tournament as an indictment of any lack of skill of my part, I really hope the Bab-I Humayun won't hold it against me if I don't make it, Nurcan's inner dialogue starts to take over her.

  "Malgré ma réticence, je vais tenter le coup!" (Against my better judgment, I'll throw my ring in the hat!) Nurcan then puts her name forward.

  Upon returning to her room, she meets with its final occupant, while, in an attempt to allay her fears, she tries to predict the probability of making it to the shortlist, along with its confidence interval. Which is when she catches the eye of the final occupant.

  "Qu'est-ce que ?a représente?" (What does that represent?) the final occupant asks in a Dutch accent, while only seemingly seeing a bunch of calculations.

  "Des prévisions. C'est quoi ton nom?" (Forecasts. What's your name?)

  "Femke. Et toi?" (Femke. And you?)

  "Nurcan!"

  "Des prévisions de quoi?" (Forecasts of what?) Femke asks her.

  "Ma qualification pour la liste courte du Tournoi des Trois Sorciers!" (My qualification for the shortlist of the Triwizard Tournament!)

  While Femke is watching her perform these arithmantic calculations, she starts writing down the implications of various scenarios. What is for certain is that the most extreme scenario, that is, I compete for sure if I make the shortlist, would place a lower limit on the probability of making it to the shortlist, so I have at least a 3/32 chance of spending 8 months at Hogwarts.

  "Tu es folle? Tu crois avoir au moins trois trente-deuxièmes de chance de te qualifier pour le tour suivant?" (Are you crazy? You feel you have at least a 3/32 chance to qualify for the next round?) Femke rolls her eyes at the forecast.

  "Le tour suivant ne comporte aucun risque supplémentaire que je n'encours pas déjà. Je sais que je ne dois pas prendre ma sélection pour acquise, mais je ne perds rien à m'essayer!" (The next round doesn't carry any additional risk that I don't already incur. I know I mustn't take my selection for granted, but I have nothing to lose to try!)

  "As-tu la moindre idée de qui d'autre tente sa chance?" (Do you have any idea of who you're up against?)

  "Pas vraiment..." (Not really...) Nurcan sighs, before returning to her forecast.

  But having a 3/32 chance to make it to the main event would imply that I have a better chance than 1/12 to be selected by the Goblet should I make it to the short list, since 3/32 is greater than 1/12. That is, in all cases, my odds are better than pure chance, if I get to the short list. So the cold, hard truth is that my odds of even making it to the short list are all over the place, but lower odds of making it to the short list mean higher odds of competing once on it, if the total probability of competing is fixed, Nurcan ruminates about the arithmantic forecast.

  However, Femke starts to have a bad feeling about Nurcan, about how obsessive she has become about the Triwizard Tournament to the point of wanting to make her own forecasts this early. At this point, however, the forecasts might be a little crude.

  At this point, Nurcan tries to think of how would the faculty select people for the short list: behavior and grades seem sufficient for a long list. However, she feels the resulting long list's sole meaning is as a third parameter in her forecasts, but she feels awfully confident in only one thing: the overall probability of being chosen as Beauxbatons' champion.

  If disciplinary records and grades are the first filter, then I'm going to be on a long list that's meaningless on its own! The only question remaining is: how many people can be expected to be on the long list, knowing I'll be on it? Nurcan ruminates.

  "Je sens que Nurcan est désespérée d'avoir un peu de réconfort quant au Tournoi des Trois Sorciers!" (I feel like Nurcan is desperate to get a little bit of comfort about the Triwizard Tournament!) Femke tells both Victoria and Christine.

  "Peut-être que la dernière édition de Sorcière-Hebdo pourrait l'aider alors..." (Maybe the latest issue of Sorcière-Hebdo could help her then...) Victoria then whips up the latest issue of Sorcière-Hebdo from her horse pocket.

  Victoria reads along the divination addiction story with Nurcan. I trust Nurcan is smart enough to understand the dangers of relying too much on divination, even the DIY kind she does.

  Speaking of which, the latest issue of Sorcière-Hebdo runs a story about how a witch, desperate for comfort in the face of uncertainty, turned to diviners for the past 4 years, and how she went from diviner to diviner to get some clarity, but that clouded things even further, as each diviner tended to deliver different interpretations of her future.

  And that witch found herself cross-referencing not only wizarding diviners, but also Muggle ones, to see who was best at what. Her life became increasingly uncomfortable when the outcomes predicted by diviners failed to pass, as her stress levels went up, and became more despondent.

  Now I have a better idea of what its really like being a divination addict, like the examiner I had for my Divination ASPIC, Nurcan ruminates, and tries to think of how to prevent becoming one herself.